After Latest CPI and Jobs Numbers, Hopes for Rate Cuts Fade

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week, Wall Street’s hopes for a rate cut seem to be fading. Between last week’s jobs numbers and this week’s CPI figures, the case for cutting rates seems to be weakening.

It’s perplexing, as most Americans aren’t doing well and the economy seems to be slowing. Yet for some reason headline economic data continues to paint a rosy picture.

There has been talk of a “silent recession,” one that impacts people but that doesn’t show up in macro economic data. And if that’s the case, it could take a while before the Fed decides to cut rates.

Better Than Expected Jobs Numbers

Last week’s jobs report was a bit of a surprise, with nearly 200,000 jobs added, beating consensus forecasts. The flip side to that, however, was that much of that increase was likely the result of striking workers returning to the workforce.

Remove those striking workers and the overall numbers wouldn’t have been as rosy. It’s also important to note that these are just preliminary numbers, and the actual numbers may eventually be revised downward.

The jobs numbers from two months ago, for instance, were revised downward, long after everyone had forgotten about them. So don’t be surprised to see these jobs numbers ending up being revised downward next year.

The real surprise was the unemployment rate falling to 3.7%. Job figures are one of the two major factors the Federal Reserve looks at when deciding on its interest rate policy, and a falling unemployment rate is hardly going to pressure the Fed to cut rates.

Inflation Remains Steady

This week’s consumer price index (CPI) release confirmed that, while inflation remains moderate at 3.1% year on year, core inflation remains elevated, at 4% year on year. Inflation may not be rising, but it’s not in any real hurry to decline either.

The Fed isn’t likely to accelerate its balance sheet drawdown, nor is it likely to hike rates, given that inflation isn’t rising. But if inflation remains stagnant, the Fed may reach a point where it has to make a decision to try to get inflation rates back down to 2%.

Expectations for the Fed

The consensus estimate is that the FOMC will hold interest rates steady again this week. With inflation seemingly under control and the job market still seemingly strong, at least according to the latest figures, there’s neither a reason to hike rates nor a reason to cut rates.

Given how long the Fed has now paused rates, it seems that we’ve finally reached a peak. Barring any unforeseen spike in inflation, it’s hard to see anything that could pressure the Fed to raise rates any further.

Add the political pressure from the White House to cut rates, and the expectation is that the Fed’s next move is to start cutting rates. The only question is when.

Because none of the macroeconomic data indicates that the economy is facing serious trouble, the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates now, especially since inflation has yet to get back to 2%. So until inflation rates get back towards 2%, the Fed will likely continue to sit on its hands.

Markets had estimated that the Fed might begin to cut rates at the March 2024 FOMC meeting, the first meeting of 2024 with a press conference. But the odds of such a rate cut are falling after last week’s jobs report.

If economic data continues to look like it does, it might not be until mid-2024 before the Fed starts to consider rate cuts. And until the first rate cut, it’s going to be difficult to predict what the Fed’s future monetary policy moves will look like.

Impact on the Economy

Higher interest rates have already impacted the economy, through higher housing prices, slower economic activity, and an extra burden on American households. While consumer spending remains elevated, much of that spending is being done with credit cards, and rising interest rates are magnifying the impact of all that credit card spending.

The Fed cutting rates isn’t necessarily going to bring relief, however. It seems that the Fed is only going to cut rates once it becomes absolutely certain that the economy is slowing down or headed toward recession.

But if the economy is already facing a silent recession, the first rate cuts may be too little, too late. By the time the Fed realizes the need to cut rates, the damage will already have been done and the recession will already be underway.

Looking back at the Fed’s track record, it was only in September 2007 that the Fed began cutting interest rates, with the beginning of the recession being officially dated as starting in December 2007. Even though the Fed had cut rates by 100 basis points by December, it wasn’t enough.

Rate cuts continued throughout 2008, until rates were cut to zero. There’s little reason to believe the Fed would act any differently today, and that the Fed has any better ability at foreseeing a recession today than it did then.

By the time the Fed cuts rates, whether that’s in 2024 or beyond, there may not be much time before the start of the next recession.

That’s why it’s important to start thinking now about how to protect yourself against that oncoming recession. Waiting until the recession is already underway could be just as bad for you as it is for the Fed.

Many Americans have already been buffeted by high inflation, stagnant wages, and a slowing economy. And those that have had both the foresight and the ability to protect themselves have started to try to protect themselves, many of them by buying precious metals like gold.

Gold and silver have served as safe haven assets and stores of value for centuries, and continue to play that role today. With fears of recession growing, gold reached new record highs last week, and could continue to climb once a recession actually occurs.

Gold demand has been strong this year, with many gold buyers choosing to buy gold with a gold IRA. A gold IRA offers all the same tax advantages as any other IRA account, but holds physical gold coins and bars rather than conventional financial instruments.

A gold IRA can also be funded with a rollover from an existing 401(k), 403(b), TSP, IRA, or similar retirement account, allowing you to protect your existing retirement savings while still enjoying the same tax advantages you already have.

Goldco has helped thousands of customers benefit from owning gold, whether they’re looking to start a gold IRA or just buy a few gold coins to store at home. If you want to protect your hard-earned savings from recession, call Goldco today to learn more about how gold can help you safeguard your wealth.