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One indicator that market analysts look to for signs of an impending recession is an inverted yield curve. Because of uncertainty about the future, investors demand more yield from longer-term investments. That’s why you’ll see higher interest rates on longer-term bonds than shorter-term bonds. An one-month bond may yield 3% interest while a 10-year bond may yield 5%. When those yields start to flatten, so that there’s not much difference between the yields on short and long maturities, or [...]
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis the Federal Reserve engaged in a massive amount of quantitative easing (QE). In addition to pushing interest rates to near zero, the Fed also purchased nearly $2 trillion worth of US government debt. That incentivized the US government to take advantage of the low interest rate environment to issue trillions of dollars in new debt at ultra-low interest rates. Despite the years of $1 trillion federal budget deficits, interest spending on [...]
Building up a nest egg for retirement is only one half of retirement planning. The other half consists of planning to safeguard and maintain that wealth well into the future. Business cycles have been a regular part of the economy for over a century. The booms and busts that occur with regularity are something that need to be taken into account when preparing for the future. Failing to do so could leave investors suffering significant losses in wealth during [...]
Stock markets soared last week in the aftermath of Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of New York. In contrast to Powell’s statement in October that the Fed was still a “long way” from the neutral interest rate, Powell last week stated that interest rates now “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.” Markets saw that as a clear sign that the Fed has become [...]